CURE FOR THE DECLINING PILOT POPULATION
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Would you believe me if I stated I have a cure for the declining pilot population? And would you also believe me if I said YOU have the cure too?
It’s true. We have the power to manage this problem right now. It won’t take cheaper fuel, less government regulations, cheaper airplanes, more airports, or even a good economy. We have already demonstrated a lot more people can afford flying, but have just chosen to do other stuff.
The concept is so simple that I’m sure more than a few people will dismiss it and call me out mercilessly in the comments below. I don’t care. It’s what I believe and I think you will be believe it too by the end of this article.
You see it is regular folks like us that hold the keys to this puzzle. With all of the perceived, and real, barriers to entry, we have seen a steady decline in our ranks. It just makes sense – the harder you make it and the more competing priorities there are, the less new pilots we’ll have among us. It’s not rocket science.
Here’s where it gets interesting – and simple.
There are roughly 600,000* registered pilots in the United States. If just half of us aggressively pursued someone that has a little spark of interest in aviation and actively encouraged, assisted, or mentored them, imagine the outcome.
I know it sounds crazy? Getting large numbers of pilots to uniformly do anything has been the bane of regulators from the beginning. So let’s be less aggressive and just say 10%. If only 10% of us annually latched onto someone and got them into flying, how would this curtail the declining pilot population?
It’s actually simple, and you know this from your finance classes or watching your investments (if you are so lucky to have them). A 10% annualized rate of return has the effect of doubling your number in roughly 8 years. So using simple math, in less than a decade we could theoretically double the number of registered pilots in the United States. I know it still sounds crazy, but the EAA encouraged it’s roughly 180,000 members to fly almost a million kids each decade since it started in 1992 – not bad.
What if we cut that down to a more “reasonable” 2%? If we only mentored or added two percent to our ranks that is still 12,000 new pilots each year that we didn’t have before. Isn’t that worth doing?
Don’t get hung up on being a mentor. If you are low on experience then your role can lean more towards encouragement and camaraderie versus instructional. The outcome will be the same – a new pilot enters the system.
“Do we really need more pilots? I like being the only kid on the block with a license and an airplane, plus the airspace is less crowded and I have unlimited access to rental airplanes, instructors, etc.” This is obviously selfish and short-sighted. If our numbers continue to decline the infrastructure will decline along with it and the death spiral will begin (some say it’s already happening). Little airports and FBOs will continue to shut down. The number of manufactured airplanes will decline. The availability of technicians and parts will dewindle. All of this so you can be the coolest kid in your neighborhood? I think not!
AOPA tried to promote this concept by building a mentorship program where mentors and mentorees could sign up to find each other plus get a bunch of helpful media. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to get off the ground. Partially because most mentors don’t think of themselves being in that role. Conversely mentorees didn’t really know about it, unless someone told them.
Great idea, but I don’t think a formal program will work. It needs to be a more organic, grassroots effort. Above all, it needs to be simple. What can be more simple than encouraging someone who’s interested and making yourself available to help them as needed?
So push yourself away from the computer, go out and kick someone in the butt.
Honestly, I think you’ll find it easier than you think. If you just keep your eyes and ears open, you might find these folks will come to you. Family members, work acquaintances, friends and neighbors they are all potential candidates.
This cool old video is a little “over the top” but the point is valid. Sometimes a little persistence combined with leading by example is all it takes.
You don’t need to come across as a high pressure salesperson. The process can be very simple. If you talk about your flying and celebrate your passion with those around you, the ones that have an interest will bring it up to you. Once that happens, you need to seize the opportunity. Do one (or all) of these things: Take them up on a flight. Give them a tour of the airport. Take them to an air show or fly-in. Offer to sit down and explain how it all works.
Don’t overwhelm them with too much information up front, but timeliness is important. You need to strike while the iron is hot, but keep a balanced approach.
Each year, make it a resolution to take on a new apprentice.
After you have mentored a few people it’ll become second nature. The accolades for you go beyond helping to rebuild our industry. You will gain the satisfaction of sharing this amazing endeavor with others around you. This will in turn build, or strengthen, relationships and just make your experience more rewarding. It’s a total win-win!
You get to choose to be a part of the problem or part of the solution. It should be an easy decision Captain.
Happy Hunting!
By Brent Owens <click on my name to email me>
*based on FAA statistics of 610,576 registered and active pilots in the US for 2012
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One of the biggest problems is the age of the pilot population. Those of us that are grandparents should make an effort to first fly our grandkids. I was first introduced to aviation from my grandfather over 50 years ago in a Piper Tripacer, and have been flying for over 30 years. Flying with grandkids would be great for both of us.
Great point Lou! Passing this on to our family would be the best place to start.
Not a bad idea. The problem seems to be that almost no one wants to talk about being pilots themselves. I love talking about aviation and flying myself, as a perennial student pilot. But I cannot tell how many times I’m the one spouting about really wanting to get back in the air, and blow me over to find out a guy or two I work with are pilots yet never talk about it.
Strange.
I have noticed that too. Folks seem almost bashful about it. Maybe we make too much out of pilots being braggarts and thus they clam up. Excellent point! Thanks Fred!
The “downward spiral” started a long time ago, I think. It’s part of the reason flying is so expensive. Imagine you’re a guy with an idea for a new product that will cost a million dollars to develop, test, certify, market, and insure. If you sell a million of them, you only have to amortize $1 per unit. If you’re selling a thousand of them, it’s $1,000 per unit. The smaller our community gets, the larger that number is going to become. Essentially it becomes financially impossible to introduce new products and technology. That’s why even companies like Cirrus — wildly successful by comparison — struggle just to get by. Even Beech couldn’t make it in the end.
I wish cost was not a problem, but I still feel it is. No matter how much you want to fly, without incredibly generous benefactors it’s still immensely expensive. I think your strategy will work, but to be honest with so many people un- or under-employed, buried in debt, etc. the best odds of success might come from picking just the right people to pursue in this worthy quest.
Kids are always worth sharing the aviation bug with. Those experiences stick with them in a strong way — it sure did with me!
Ro I completely agree. The economy of scale is working against us as you illustrated.
Starting to feel like Europe around here – in more ways than one.
I also agree that we should target the young. I know several aviators that started as Young Eagles.
We’ll just have to keep pushing the boulder up the hill.
The reason for the decline in the pilot population is simple, the aviation industry is full of people who are terrible at running businesses. They have zero marketing and customer service skills. Pretend you are a new student, someone who just decided you wanted to learn how to fly, and contact flight schools. How long will it take you to get in a flight? What will your discovery flight be like? How long before you get sick of the flight instructor who doesn’t care how much fun you are having, only cares about filling up his logbook and covering his butt with the FAA? It used to be the flying was a cool enough activity that people would ignore the fact that learning to fly was a horrible experience, the payoff was big enough. The same isn’t true today. If you want to save aviation, businesses will actually have to behave like businesses, and compete for business, and provide a superior experience. They need to explain to people what the payoff will be once they get their certificates. Not one flight instructor I ever used ever asked me why I wanted to learn to fly, and tried to explain to me what I could do with my certificate once I got it. No other industry would even still exist with these kind of awful business practices.
Deepak Bansal
http://clearedintobravo.com
Deepak,
That’s an accurate summation. I have lamented about this in the past. We are really terrible when it comes this.
Brent
Brent, you touch on an important topic. Flying is not a zero sum game, and the more we preach the gospel of flight, the more like-minded people we can bring into the flying economy. I like the idea of being a flying mentor. Once I get back into GA, that will be my first priority!
Rob,
Right on! You would be a great mentor!
Brent