Three things that scare pilots
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Pilots don’t agree on much, but if you were to ask what are the scariest things that could potentially occur in an airplane you will almost universally get this answer: Fire, Structural Failure, and Midair (in no particular order).
The spectre of an in flight fire has been my personal boogie man, but the good news is in the remote chance that one might occur 1:4M (on an hourly basis) and less than 22% of these end up being fatal. This doesn’t count post-impact fires, which were well represented during my stroll through the NTSB database.
These are the total fixed-wing GA occurrences over the last 10 years – source NTSB database
-Source NTSB database. Odds of this happening is 1:4M
-Source NTSB database. Odds of this happening is 1:13M
-Source NTSB database. Odds of this happening is 1:3M
So you can draw your own conclusions, but at the end of the day flying is very safe and there’s really no “boogie men” to worry about.
- Fires and structural failures are mechanical breakdowns so good maintenance and engineering can go a long way to mitigating these two particular issues. Obviously these statistics are much better these days, but the lesson here is don’t skimp on maintenance for your aero machine.
- The midair is the most prevalent of the group and for the pilot, the most avoidable. That’s because you are in control, right? Keeping your head on a swivel and not letting yourself get sucked inside is key to survival here. With some of the new technology coming on line, we’ll get some help in this arena, but we are still the last line of defense.
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I think your pie charts are a little off. 12 out of 58 fire fatalities is 21%, not 17%. And certainly 13 out of 18 fatal structural failures is way more than 42%. Working backwards from your published numbers (since I don’t have your data), I think 58 is the number of NON-fatal in-flight fires: with a total of 12+58 = 70, then 12 is 17% of that. Ditto for structural failures… if the total is 13+18 = 31, then 13 fatalities is 42%.
Thanks Charley! That’s what I get for blindly trusting Excel to compute a simple percentage. I have switched the charts to show the fatals as just raw numbers again.
I’ve unfortunately been party to two out of the three in your list. How’s THAT for scary?
I think the odds of experiencing one of these is directly related to the type of flying you do. For example, if you’re an airline pilot, you’re quite unlikely to see any of them.
On the other hand, if you fly fire suppression missions, structural failure in that line of work has been a problem. Likewise, formation aerobatics, airshow flying, and flight instruction put one at a statistically higher risk for midair collision. If you fly cargo, fire is going to be more likely than the other two due to undeclared, improperly packaged, or mis-labeled hazmat.
That’s a great point Ron! I have had a structural failure during acro as well, so that certainly goes to show you that the type of flying makes a big impact. Plus, these are just “reported” incidents. Many times these issues can arise, but if there’s not bent metal off the airport, it’s probably not in the records.
You left out one item from your list of pilot’s scariest things: The upcoming cost of fuel to be paid after the flight!
Martin,
You got that right!
Yes… keep that head on a swivel! Amazing the one thing pilots can avoid is the highest. Sends a message.
Engine failure at low altitude scares me the most.
That’s definitely another consideration. That first 800′ of every single engine takeoff keeps me on my toes.